Seismic change for California?
California, which has more House members than any other state, yet typically sees almost no turnover of seats, is facing the prospect of a huge change in its congressional delegation.
With little fanfare, voters in November yanked control of the map-making process from the highly partisan Legislature in Sacramento and handed it to an entirely new - and unpredictable - Citizens Redistricting Commission.
The uncertainty of the final product is already causing major indigestion within the Golden State's powerful 53-member House delegation - led by outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi - which recently had as many as five committee chairmen and will still have three chairmen after Republicans take charge.
From the barrios and mansions of Los Angeles County to the suburbs and farmlands of the interior, all political power in the nation's megastate will be up for grabs - a dramatic departure from that most recent redistricting, during which incumbent-protection efforts prevailed. This time around, no one in the enormous delegation can be certain of whether they will have cozy, unassailable districts when the new map is completed - or even where their districts will be.
The Census Bureau's House reapportionment numbers for the next decade reveal that California's delegation will not grow for the first time since statehood in 1850. The state's looming redistricting chaos shows that battles with huge partisan stakes can take place in states that are neither gaining nor losing House seats.
Because of its unpredictability, next year's redrawing could be one for the history books.
"I have no control," shrugged Democratic Rep. Howard Berman, who, with his brother Michael Berman, a storied political consultant, was instrumental in drawing the 2002 lines.
Although the delegation's members have individually been planning for what lies ahead, most of them share Berman's professed ignorance of the new scenario. And they voice varying degrees of anxiety.
"I don't think that anybody has figured it out. Uncertainty makes all politicians crazy," said Democratic Rep. Bob Filner, who supported creating the commission as an improvement over partisan line drawing, which he said has "diminished democracy." Removing politicians from the process could boost Democrats, he said, given the state's partisan leaning.
"Members of the delegation will struggle to survive," said nine-term Rep. Sam Farr, a Pelosi ally. "Total uncertainty for everybody means that there will be total chaos. In Northern California, we may have to run against each other, or move, or run against state legislators. There will be no safe seats."
Under the new rules, which 61 percent of the voters approved as an amendment to the state Constitution, the 14-member redistricting commission will draw districts for Congress as well as the state Legislature. The final maps must be approved by a supermajority of members - at least three Democrats, three Republicans and three members affiliated with neither party. The referendum barred the commission from "favoring or discriminating against an incumbent, political candidate or political party." It also ordered the commission "to consider the geographic integrity of cities, counties, neighborhoods and communities of interest."
The prospective changes are all the more destabilizing because the politics of the California delegation has been remarkably stable. In the past decade, only one seat changed partisan hands: the Bay Area congressional district of Democrat Jerry McNerney, who defeated conservative Republican Rep. Richard Pombo in 2006. Only 14 of the 53 members have served less than a decade, and many of the others can't recall a serious reelection challenge.
Perhaps more significantly, the delegation has aged. Of the 34 Democrats, eight are 70 or older, and 10 are 65 to 69. Only four of the 19 Republicans are 65 or older. The relatively high number of senior-status legislators will very likely encourage retirements among those who are reluctant to combine the rigors of their Capitol Hill work with regular cross-country flights to tend to constituencies in redrawn districts that could be unfamiliar.
Observers of the delegation predict retirees could include Republican Jerry Lewis and Democrat Pete Stark, who were each denied a chairmanship in the past year. Other members, such as Democrat Lois Capps, Republicans Elton Gallegly and Gary Miller, and even Berman - all except Miller will be at least 68 in 2012 - have been mentioned as possible retirees because their districts may change.
Filner, who has chaired the House Veterans' Affairs Committee, said he expects to decide soon whether to run for San Diego mayor in 2012.
"Rather than being in the House minority, I could have executive power as a chief executive," he said. Although his House seat has been safely Democratic, San Diego has a history of electing Republican mayors.
Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, who in 2000 defeated a Republican incumbent in a brutal and costly contest, predicted that a commission-drawn map will yield a greater number of competitive contests.
"I expect significant changes in the district lines," he said. He added that another new election-law change to require "open primaries" for all voters will benefit political moderates, such as himself.
The post-redistricting landscape is further complicated by the ambitions of numerous politicians - some of whom face term limits of six years in the state Assembly and eight years in the state Senate. Although passage of last month's referendum means that they will no longer have an opportunity to draw a district to their liking, that's not likely to stop them from trying to influence the commission or eyeing vulnerable incumbents.
The state's overall Democratic tilt should encourage many aspiring Democrats to challenge GOP incumbents, especially in the Los Angeles area. It's not lost on many prospective challengers that Republicans failed to win a single statewide race or state legislative seat in 2010, a remarkable record in a GOP landslide year nationally.